Week 6
Picks in Bold, Top Plays with ***
st. louis @ ***JACKSONVILLE -10
Teams favored by at least 6.5 points and heading into a bye were 30-5 ATS since 2002. Make that 30-6
houston @ CINCINNATI -5
One of the biggest things to think about for each matchup is the psychological factors effecting each team. One of these factors is coming off a close road win.
Teams are 17-38 when coming off a close road win of 3 points or less. The Bengals fit this make up after beating the Ravens by 3 in week 5.
However, I incorrectly gave them the benefit of the doubt based on how well they came back from the tough loss to the Broncos to beat the Packers at Lambeau in week 2. Wrong!
DETROIT @ green bay -14
Green Bay still allowed 5 sacks against a backup defensive line. The same Lion's offensive unit faired much better against the Steelers in week 5. Packers just had more to prove here in the end.
BALTIMORE @ minnesota -3
***NY GIANTS @ new orleans -3
I certainly have underestimated New Orleans home field advantage. I thought the Giants road success would trump the home field advantage, but this one wasn't even close. i will be interesting to see how the Saints play at Miami next week, and how well the
Giants are able to rebound from this embarrasing loss. In the end this will be a good loss for the Giants as it will bring them back to reality a bit.
cleveland @ PITTSBURGH -14
Cleveland was in a similar position as the Bengals here. The Browns had a close road win of 3 points against Buffalo, so the trends would expect them to come out flat here. Not the case, as they stayed in the ballgame throughout the contest.
carolina -3 @ TAMPA BAY
I felt like the home dog would prevail here as the Panthers and Jake Delhomme have looked pretty miserable all season. Also, Josh Johnson has looked to be a big improvement at QB for Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately, not even a defensive touchdown and kickoff return for touchdown could end the Bucs winless ways.
KANSAS CITY @ washington -6.5
Losing to Detroit in Detroit was bad enough, but now they lose to the winless Chiefs at homes... can it get any worse?
***PHILADELPHIA -14.5 @ oakland
Not only did the Raiders team that had been beaten 3 straight games by at least 20 points cover the spread, the beat the Eagles straight up.
This is going to make each of these teams very hard to read for next week.
arizona @ ***SEATTLE -3
I thought Seattle would be able to overcome their injuries on the O-line and play like they did in week 5.
However, the normally strong Seattle homefield advantage wasn't even close to working this week.
tennessee @ ***NEW ENGLAND -9.5
As soon as you think the Titans have hit rock bottom, this happens!
buffalo @ NY JETS -10
Similar situation as the Eagles, except the Jets were actually playing at home.
Buffalo has been hot and cold this year as they basically beat the Patriots in week 1, but then in week 5 lose to the Browns.
chicago @ ***ATLANTA -3.5
***DENVER @ san diego -3.5
Teaser Pick
•Denver +10
Denver has still only allowed 8.6 points/game this year and rank 6th in the league with 376.8 yards/game on offense.
Expect them to stay close with their offense alone by facing a Chargers D that allowed Rashard Mendenhall to run all over them for 165 yards @ 5.7/carry.
•Detroit +20.5
Detroit might be 1-4, but they usually keep it interesting for at least a half of the game with their efficient offense.
In their last three games they have beat the Redskins, lost to the Bears while outgaining them in yards 398 to 276 and holding Cutler to 141 yards passing, and lost to the Steelers by 8.
Don't expect them to lose by more than 20 here....
Take Denver +10 and Detroit +20.5
